2008年11月16日星期日
Mark價──計算樓市的大位
股票市場經常應用圖表分析，希望從蛛絲馬跡中找到股價的去向，可是在樓市中很少如此應用，基於三大原因：
1. 個別樓宇之間同質性(homogeneity)低，相互間難以作完全配對(perfect
matching)，比如匯豐銀行的股票具有完全的同質性，所以用不同時間的交易價格作出分析還比較容易理解；可是即使同一屋苑的樓宇價格可因應景觀、方
向、層數等而出現差別。
2. 即使是同一個物業單位，也因應樓齡加長、維修保養狀況同而出現價格上的差異，比如廿年前落成的樓宇，十五年前樓齡只有五年，五年前樓齡已達到十五年，折舊因素難以在價格上撇除。
3. 物業流通性遠低於股票、外匯、商品等，尤以成交紀錄疏落的物業，比如單幢樓、居屋等，個別交易紀錄容易因資訊不完整而出現偏差。
歸因結底，類似的分析難以推廣到個別的物業之上，可業界並未因此而放棄，而希望能建立力求客觀全面的價格指標，當中尤以中原地產與城市大學的數據備受市場的重視。該指標提出「屋苑的調整呎價」的概念：
- 定義：呎價=每平方英呎成交價。
- 由於呎價會受景觀、方向和層數等因素影響，所以利用回歸分析方法來確定這些因素對呎價的影響，從而計算屋苑的調整呎價。
- 由於一個屋苑的不同單位在質素上(亦反映在買賣價格上)是會有很大差別，使用調整呎價避免了直接使用平均呎價可能引發的偏差。
- 最近期的調整呎價可用於屋苑單位價格的評估。
中原城市指數是以成份屋苑的市值變動來計算，屋苑市值等於全部可銷售面積乘以它的調整呎價。換句話說，規模較大的屋苑如太古城、美孚新邨、沙田第一
城、嘉湖山莊等比重便遠高於個別較小型的屋苑，簡而言之中原城市指數是「加權指數」(weighted
index)。同時還公佈成份屋苑的每周的調整呎價，亦可作為分析之用。
筆者之所以長篇大論解釋中原城市指數，是希望指出這是目前市場上較佳及透明度較高的樓價指標，當然這些資料的質素離理想甚遠，因之相關的資料只能作為參考之用，不應視為嚴謹的分析，但有總比沒有好。
附圖是由1994年至今的中原城市指數圖，筆者標示了幾個重要的浪頂、浪底，從而構成分析後市的阻力與支持位：
1994年浪頂：73.54 1995年浪底：52.97
1997年浪頂：100.85 1998年浪底：47.94
2000年浪頂：57.05 2003年浪底：31.34
筆者順道介紹支持與阻力的用途，浪頂是當時買家購買力的極限，浪底是當時賣家容忍低價的極限，即表示高於浪頂及低於浪底的價格不被當時的市場接受。
可是隨著時間的推移，基本因素改變，買賣雙方的財力及心理等因素亦隨之改變，進而能超越浪頂及浪底。支持與阻力是指某些交易密集的價位，基於買賣雙方均在
較長時間接受該價格水平。當升破該密集水平後，以往的阻力會變為支持；反之當跌破該密集水平後，以往的支持會變為阻力。
以目前的市況，1997年頂部(100.85)及2003年的底部(31.34)是遙不可及的價位，2008年2月高位73.28大約是止於1994年的浪頂(73.54)，暫時此水平已成為今次的浪頂而成為阻力。
我們再看下面阻力支持位，分別是1999年浪頂(57.05)、1995年浪底(52.97)及1998年的浪底，由1994年至2008年的15
年間，共有約五年半時間在該水平徘徊，構成密集價位區域，筆者估計在出現所謂「沙士價」，即2003年浪底(31.34)，要先過這個密集區。
以2008年浪頂73.54計，調整至57.05即由高位下跌22.4%，調整至49.94即由高位下跌32.1%，如調整至31.34。
基於篇幅所限，筆者將在《樓市漫步》第二版列出各區主要屋苑的支持阻力位，有興趣的讀者請到網誌留下電郵。
2008年10月23日星期四
[轉]巴菲特告訴你10種致富的方法
From: Warren Buffett's secrets - 10 Ways to Get Rich
“Life is like a snowball. The important thing is finding wet snow and a really long hill.” – Warren Buffett
人生就似雪球，只要找到一條足夠長的斜坡，就能把雪滾大。
《雪球》英文版已經有售，沒買的原因不是售價太貴($285)，最主要是沒有相信心，能夠把書本看完。(書本太厚，加上自己的英文閱讀水平太差)
就以下文為例，文中生字對rayray來說實在太深奧，真的花了很多時間"查字典"。(現在用金山詞霸，應該說不上查字典，只是查其意思)
雖然辛苦，但也盡力把全文看完，除了能學到很多英文"生字"，更重要是學習巴菲特致富的秘訣......
Content below is directly copied from the source: 10 Ways to Get Rich – Parade Magazine. 1. Reinvest your profits
When you first make money, you may be tempted to spend it. Don't. Instead, reinvest the profits. Buffett learned this early on. In high school, he and a pal bought a pinball machine to put in a barbershop. With the money they earned, they bought more machines until they had eight in different shops. When the friends sold the venture, Buffett used the proceeds to buy stocks and to start another small business. By age 26, he'd amassed $174,000—or $1.4 million in today's money. Even a small sum can turn into great wealth.
(rayray：將利潤再投資，以"利"再生"利"！即使很少的本錢，也能滾出雪球效應，亦是雪球的奧義：人生就似雪球，只要找到一條足夠長的斜坡，就能把雪滾大。)
2. Be willing to be different
Don't base your decisions upon what everyone is saying or doing. When Buffett began managing money in 1956 with $100,000 cobbled together from a handful of investors, he was dubbed an oddball. He worked in Omaha, not on Wall Street, and he refused to tell his partners where he was putting their money. People predicted that he'd fail, but when he closed his partnership 14 years later, it was worth more than $100 million. Instead of following the crowd, he looked for undervalued investments and ended up vastly beating the market average every single year. To Buffett, the average is just that—what everybody else is doing. To be above average, you need to measure yourself by what he calls the Inner Scorecard, judging yourself by your own standards and not the world's.
3. Never suck your thumb
Gather in advance any information you need to make a decision, and ask a friend or relative to make sure that you stick to a deadline. Buffett prides himself on swiftly making up his mind and acting on it. He calls any unnecessary sitting and thinking -“thumb-sucking.” When people offer him a business or an investment, he says, “I won't talk unless they bring me a price.” He gives them an answer on the spot.
4. Spell out the deal before you start
Your bargaining leverage is always greatest before you begin a job—that's when you have something to offer that the other party wants. Buffett learned this lesson the hard way as a kid, when his grandfather Ernest hired him and a friend to dig out the family grocery store after a blizzard. The boys spent five hours shoveling until they could barely straighten their frozen hands. Afterward, his grandfather gave the pair less than 90 cents to split. Buffett was horrified that he performed such backbreaking work only to earn pennies an hour. Always nail down the specifics of a deal in advance—even with your friends and relatives.
5. Watch small expenses
Buffett invests in businesses run by managers who obsess over the tiniest costs. He once acquired a company whose owner counted the sheets in rolls of 500-sheet toilet paper to see if he was being cheated (he was). He also admired a friend who painted only the side of his office building that faced the road. Exercising vigilance over every expense can make your profits—and your paycheck—go much further.
6. Limit what you borrow
Living on credit cards and loans won't make you rich. Buffett has never borrowed a significant amount—not to invest, not for a mortgage. He has gotten many heartrending letters from people who thought their borrowing was manageable but became overwhelmed by debt. His advice: Negotiate with creditors to pay what you can. Then, when you're debt-free, work on saving some money that you can use to invest.
7. Be persistent
With tenacity and ingenuity, you can win against a more established competitor. Buffett acquired the Nebraska Furniture Mart in 1983 because he liked the way its founder, Rose Blumkin, did business. A Russian immigrant, she built the mart from a pawnshop into the largest furniture store in North America. Her strategy was to undersell the big shots, and she was a merciless negotiator. To Buffett, Rose embodied the unwavering courage that makes a winner out of an underdog.
8. Know when to quit
Once, when Buffett was a teen, he went to the racetrack. He bet on a race and lost. To recoup his funds, he bet on another race. He lost again, leaving him with close to nothing. He felt sick—he had squandered nearly a week's earnings. Buffett never repeated that mistake. Know when to walk away from a loss, and don't let anxiety fool you into trying again.
(rayray：能知進退，則今次金融海嘯便可倖免於難。可惜知易行難！)
9. Assess the risks
In 1995, the employer of Buffett's son, Howie, was accused by the FBI of price-fixing. Buffett advised Howie to imagine the worst- and best-case scenarios if he stayed with the company. His son quickly realized that the risks of staying far outweighed any potential gains, and he quit the next day. Asking yourself “and then what?” can help you see all of the possible consequences when you're struggling to make a decision—and can guide you to the smartest choice.
10. Know what success really means
Despite his wealth, Buffett does not measure success by dollars. In 2006, he pledged to give away almost his entire fortune to charities, primarily the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation. He's adamant about not funding monuments to himself—no Warren Buffett buildings or halls. “I know people who have a lot of money,” he says, “and they get testimonial dinners and hospital wings named after them. But the truth is that nobody in the world loves them. When you get to my age, you'll measure your success in life by how many of the people you want to have love you actually do love you. That's the ultimate test of how you've lived your life.” - (文章來源：A NEVER ENDING DREAM)
2007年12月29日星期六
投資十戒
一、戒短線急攻近利買賣，不要貪圖蠅頭小利。
二、戒被捲入狂潮的洪流，不要被外來不理性的亢奮，令你跟隨潮流作出投資。例如科網泡沫、地產狂潮等都是好例子，2000年買入科網股，或1997年地產高峰時買入住所，你都會很痛苦。最近，澳門賭業概念股急升，亦是活生生的例子。
三、不要被貪婪及無理性恐懼控制投資決定。股市大崩潰時群眾的拋售，一定會導致你產生恐懼。這時候你要克服恐懼，作出人棄我取，購入「千里馬」。
四、戒買新股。畢非德從不買入新股，這是他的成功要素之一。他作出投資決定前，必須分析公司過往的業績。
五、避開所有衍生工具，林治和畢非德同樣認為政府要取締衍生工具。衍生工具的經營者，就是天空中的獵鷹，無時無刻窺伺你的小雞蛋。
六、戒聽流言或「貼士」，流言會令人疏於學習，不做自己應做的工作，迷失方向，不從事正確的分析。
七、不要過分分散投資。這個世界「千里馬」不多。過分分散投資，會拖低你的投資回報，好的「千里馬」可能三、五隻已經足夠。
八、不要買落後股。落後的馬匹很難有奇舻出現再迎頭趕上，公司股價表現落後，背後一定有其原因，你要細加分析，不要有撿便宜的心態。
九、避開他人的「婚禮」。從過往收購合併的經驗中，筆者發覺很多「婚姻」都是悲劇收場，例如盈科收購香港電訊就是最好的例子。1973年置地收購牛奶，至今置地股價仍沒法回復當年水平。
十、戒有「刀仔鋸大樹」的心態。緊記投資是一門嚴肅的工作，並非「六合彩」的賭博。筆者年輕時也有同樣的心態，認為一家小公司能夠順利發展的話，從小到大的增長過程，會比市值大的公司快，這個概念是錯誤的。
理論上，每個行業都會經歷起飛階段，但當一個行業起飛時，並非所有公司都能在起飛階段得益，從事同樣行業的小公司，在經營方面是有意想不到的掣肘，令 到他們比大公司落後。例如大公司現金流充足，在重新投資的時候，規模比較大，所以爭取到經濟效益，增長會較快；小型公司除了面對資金的掣肘外，其他方面如 內部監管、管理層的誠信、品牌的建立等，所面對的困難會比大公司為多。「細細粒，容易食」的心態是絕對要避免的。
舉例說，八十年代航運業出現困難，包玉剛系的隆豐投資，可以成功轉型收購九倉，因為公司有足夠的規模，得到銀行的支持。另一家大公司和記洋行， 1974年出現財務困難，但由於規模太大，香港不容許這樣大規模的企業倒閉，所以由礇豐銀行接管，最後將控制權賣給長實，成為今天的和黃。同樣情況，今時 今日在中國大陸，國務院絕對不容許中國人壽破產。一旦出現的話，其影響太深遠，社會不能承擔。但是上海地產、歐亞農業，都是可以置之不理的公司，可以隨時 人間蒸發，也無傷大雅，損失的只是無知的小投資者。2004年10月20日，《亞洲華爾街日報》透露，投資老將林治亦損手於細價股。2003年林治購入一 百八十萬股SafeScript Pharmacies Inc.，相當於該公司8%股權。2004年10月，美國證監會向該公司的前管理層提出訴訟，認為管理層曾經誇大營業額與溢利，股價當然應聲下跌，林治亦 措手不及，只有認命。管理層的人事關係及誠信，往往是小公司的無法茁壯成長的要素。
